Broken Windows
In a presentation at a Gartner-sponsored conference in Las Vegas, analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald said Microsoft is overburdened by nearly two decades of legacy code and not responded to the market and faces serious competition that will make Windows moot unless the software developer acts. Never the less, they are reported to be optimistic about Windows’ revival.
Joe Wilcox isn’t. His Microsoft Watch posting Broken Windows Can’t Be Fixed disagrees with those thinking Windows can be fixed.
It’s the problem of legacy and Microsoft’s ridiculous integration strategy. Windows is a fat client for a thin world. There’s no future place for the desktop client. Computing is shifting from the desktop to the device and server. Windows, particularly Vista, has too much middle-age girth to dance with the lithely crowd.
Operating systems are commodity products, and no wishful thinking by Microsoft will change that. Commodity status is one reason why Microsoft maintains its Windows monopoly. In the 1990s, Microsoft reached monopoly because Windows provided a platform from which so many third parties could make money. The company maintained the monopoly, at least since the turn of the century, because of the operating systems’ declining importance. Windows was a checklist item for consumers or IT organizations, something that came with new PCs.
The supporting ecosystem remains significant, but not the commodity operating system. Most businesses and consumers don’t buy operating systems. OS decisions are predicated by applications or hardware.
Microsoft could have maintained a happy, commodity-driven sales situation, if not for the Web 2.0 platform’s success and Windows Vista’s failure. The Web 2.0 platform and Vista are juxtaposition. Web applications tend to be light and simple, with complexity pulled to the server and new features easily made available; service updates go out to all users instantly. The Web platform can deliver up applications to most any client—anytime and anywhere.
By contrast, Vista dramatically increases operating system complexity and hardware requirements. But, with the increasing business and consumer shift to mobile devices, the market demands less complexity and lower-powered hardware. Microsoft’s inability to offer Windows Vista for low-powered laptops is example of the problem’s size. Vista demands too much. Something else: Deployment complexity plagues Windows and many supporting applications, particularly in the enterprise.
Windows is now in an inevitable state of decline that can only accelerate as people use more powerful, smaller devices. Web 2.0 is ideally suited to lower-powered, highly-functional mini-laptops and smart phones. Vista is not. When I say, “inevitable state of decline,” I don’t mean immediate. Windows will have a place as a commodity operating system for many years yet. But real computing and informational relevance has shifted to the device, server, IP network and anytime, anywhere access on anything.
I agree with Joe. The rest of his posting delivers more details. Give it a read if you’re interested in the ongoing story of Microsoft slipping from its zenith.
…John
